Turkey bonding with history or love with history is a natural phenomenon. Historically, Turkey was an empire and dominance is his ruling behavior. The WW1 fighting along with Germans and losing with them the Turkish involvement in the Middle East ended here. To reach its current status, Turkey suffered many calamities. Back by back martial laws have a Grim on the economy, but Europe wants that. Weak Turkey heavily depends on Europe. Turkey needs European Union geographically and strategically, but nowadays Turkish interests in the Middle East collide with Europe and European darling in the Middle East, which is fighting with Turkish darling. But first, we have to look at a statement of former Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu "in terms of its sphere of influence, Turkey is a Middle Eastern, Balkans, Caucasian, Central Asian, Caspian, Mediterranean, Gulf, and Black Sea country all at the same time."
Geography weakness and strength for Turkey, depending on Turkey which geographical direction is more important for Turkey. As Turkey starts its strategic game in the Middle East, a vibration of worry grows. Main Arab countries never notice it because it is a punch to the Assad regime's face it is also fulfilling the strategic goals of the West. As turkey gradually moves towards political Islam, its strategic goals become more visible. Till Russia, Iran and Syria are on the verge of war with Turkey, the West has a strategic crush on Turkey. Turkey shut down a Su-24 strategic bomber of Russia's tense situation becoming to rise mercury. West and Arabs supported Turkey against opponents and the USA did not want any strategic space for Russia and Iran. The USA accepted many roles of Turkey in Syria from refugee crisis handling to support proxies. But its Russian technical support and Iranian human resources repulse the Assad's regime downfall. So the range of action of proxies of West, Arabs, and Turkey shrinking down. The situation was not so worse on the Turkish side than Coup d'état skirmish happened.
If the West or USA played this move, which is the
silly one, even in a police raid, you need insiders and a complete inside
intelligence here you were going to change a regime and you did not know:
- The behavior of Public of that Country
- Economic Conditions
- Geo Politics
- Government, Public, and Opposition Differentiation Equation
- International Credibility
- Deep State or Establishment Presence and Behaviour
In all these factors, the West and the USA depend on a one-man army, Fethullah Gülen, and some Turkish generals, and Coup d'état failed. Erdogan move much deeper than opponents, Justice and Development Party from 2003 to 2014 cultivated three things in Turkish society:
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- Historic Pride of Ottoman Empire
- Promotion of Political Ideology
If the West and its allies were involved in this
chaos, then they never realized these social developments in Turkey. Then all
these simulations, the West needs Turkey in Syria but Coup d'état changed the
Turkish behavior and reports that Russian provide all the information about
Coup d'état and all information about the personals involved. Turkey did not
lose the strategic goals of Syria and the Middle East. Turkey too much is
careful about West dependency and gave a little Strategic Leverage to Russia in
Turkish occupied Northern Syria with the alliance of West and USA. Operation
Euphrates Shield allows Turkey to settle a buffer zone between Syria and Turkey.
The simple reason is Kurds. This buffer zone is also viewed by Iran and Russia
as a hostile act. While turkey called it an action against ISIS, a sound movie
by Turkey to monitor three opponents at a time. So Turkish moves are countered
by Russia and Iran supported by china. They also needed Turkey in the Middle
East to counter other Arabs, which are their enemy's friends. Situational
complexities are exposed to strategic affairs. Russia and Iran to counter Turkey
favor Arabs and to counter Arabs and Israel favor Turkey.
Operation Olive Branch, and an Offense in northeastern
Syria back-to-back victories for Turkey reason because Russia and its allies
not to be direct respondents, allowing the Kurds and ISIS to handle the Turks,
same Turkey allows the FSA or SNA to deal with Assad's regime and its allies. Turkey,
now moving to Idlib circumstances, was going to be more complicated, with
strong resistance from Syria. Turkey used MANPADs against Russian and Syrian fighters,
some of them are damaged. The response was very to swear they bombed a compound
where 34-50 Turkish soldiers took refuge called Balyun airstrikes. The situation
for Turkey was "So eat shoes, so
onions" as an undeclared Russian and turkey agreement preventing him from doing
direct action against Russia. Cleverly solving the problem, the Turkish
response was Operation Spring Shield against Syrian forces rather than Russia,
so Putin allowed fair strategic leverage for Turkey and did not want to lose
Turkey. Turkey also does not want to put all eggs in one basket, Syrians able
to secure Idlib but as a pyrrhic victory. This Turkish action to punish the
pawns did not bother Russia, as the queen will always be there to support
pawns. Without damaging Russian strategic goals hit Russian allies and supported
Western strategic goals and own strategic goals, a tremendous move by Turkey. But
it is a "between the devil and the Deep sea" state as a front with
Iran and Russia and behind Europe standing against Turkey.
Another strategic move, but each participant has a
common legacy: the dominant behavior. No one of them wants to lose strategic
dominance and cooperation and strategic leverage in Syria. Because it is
strategically profitable to fight with a proxy rather than an army and economically,
it is favorable. Then Turkey established a safe zone in Syria to counter the
Kurds in response to Kurds allied with Assad's Regime, but USA withdrawal
created another opportunity for Erdoğan in Syria with an agreement with Russia.
Because of the economic war with the USA and internal pressure because of
Syrian refugees' crises, Turkey did. The other move which played by Turkey, they
started gambling in Tripoli on what points they are supporting Tripoli are:
- UN-backed legitimate government
- The Mediterranean dominance
- Foot-step in Africa
- Rebalance the region
- Survival of Tripoli used as a barging tool against Egypt
- Geopolitical leverage and power struggle
- Maritime liberation
- Natural resources
The regional divisions favor every key player took advantage of new allies. It does not matter democrat or autocrat. Supporting the legitimate government, Turkey has an ally on the other edge of the Mediterranean. It creates not only an ally but also Turkey has the waste area from a strategic point of view. Turkey thinks Turkey was encircled and imprisoned by West and Middle Eastern countries. This single move the Turkish foot-steps in three continents:
- Asia
- Europe
- Africa
The balance of geopolitics is changing the shape, the
economy, and all the streams of the economy heavily dependent on a fresh course
of geopolitics. It does not mean that other predators are not smelling the
flesh, the natural resources of the Mediterranean, everyone showing muscles for
them and Turkey reaps the rewards of
its diplomacy, geopolitics, and geography. In all these aspects, Turkey's
investment in Africa bothers the Middle East, but also Europe and Russia at the
same time Turkey move from Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa and aim always
the Middle East. Others move to a military base in Qatar. Turkey encircled the
Middle East and then Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan railway lines. Connectivity and
communication, economy or defense, these all moves have one center "Middle
East". Turkey took advantage of every move from:
- Economy
- Defense
- Geopolitics
- Geography
- To Culture
Turkey Wrapping the Middle East in a coil imperceptibly. Turkey is finding allies in the enemy's line and these efforts are successful principal reason cultural bonding and ideological bonding of Arabs and Turks. The content warfare by Turkey played an important role in this movie. Palestine issue, Arab league silence, Arab- Israel closeness and Saudi regime crackdown against its own royal family created rebellion and also Syrian crises, Egyptian martial law against Freedom and Justice Party economic crises of Abu Dhabi, scattered Arab alliance, Yemen war, Iranian influence, sectarian wars and civil wars, distrust of leadership of Arabs in Islamic world closeness to Europe are favorable conditions for Turkey to take all strategic advantages in the Middle East. The biggest advantage Turkey has against Israel is that Turkey is a Muslim country. All three major players, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, if viewing their strategic goals, Israel preferring kingdoms and autocracies, Iran preferring a small minority in three or four countries, and Turkey preferring public consent in the Arab world. Turkey has the smallest portion regarding strategic goals, but it is a more dangerous form than the above two of Iran and Israel. So Turkey gently knows the pulses of the Arab world and influential approach to their core ideology base.
These moves and rewards
raged the rivals in the Middle East no doubt the world is shifting its
strategic shape China and Russia again creating a new block but the old block
is not as weak as it seems Europe and the USA have a potent presence about 80%
of Middle East under their influence so for Turkey it's a time-consuming
process. Both Russia and China need more time to show their presence and power.
All Turkish armed forces are Western-trained and equipped, any kind of confrontation
only harmed Turkey and only Turkey. So Turkey needs to be very careful and
patient, while there are too many enemies and are too few friends.
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